Source: Authors’ tabulations away from Against and CPS analysis

Source: Authors’ tabulations away from Against and CPS analysis

Once the there appear to be falls regarding the relationships speed from the years 59 and associated goes up during the decades sixty to own widows i then investigate Theory dos making use of the styles in marriage counts inside two years of age sixty. This enables us to take a look at exactly how local the alteration inside choices could be. I use counts in this data as the no analysis you certainly will give reputable denominators to possess month-to-month rates. Since found on the better committee away from Figure 5, into the 1979 so you’re able to 1995 period the fresh new top level of marriages getting widows within this 24-times variety ‘s the month of your female’s 60th birthday celebration, which have especially large counts regarding the 90 days adopting the an effective female’s 60th birthday celebration. A-sharp decline in the few weeks just before their unique 60th birthday precedes this top. This trend is comparable, yet not due to the fact obvious throughout the many years before the new 1979 legislation change.

30 days up until the 60th birthday celebration, the marriage number are 72 percent lower than the baseline times (this is basically the prominent deviation about standard)

Committee A (descriptive statistics) means that during the 1979–1995 period, this new top level of marriage ceremonies to own widows in 24-month assortment is the woman’s 60th birthday celebration, that have especially high counts on the 90 days pursuing the an effective female’s 60th birthday celebration. A sharp decline in some of the days prior to the 60th birthday celebration precedes you to top. Which trend is much like, but not because the pronounced from the years preceding this new 1979 rules change.

Committee B descriptors: Y-axis = Commission distinction regarding -a couple of years out of 60th birthday celebration; X-axis = Days of 60th birthday (-23 as a result of +23).

Panel B (regression results) suggests that there are 10 months after many years 59 (60th birthday celebration, +step one, +dos, +step 3, +8, +a dozen, +18, +twenty-two, +23, +two years) where in actuality the relationship counts is mathematically and you can financially large regarding post-1979 legislation months in accordance with this new pre-1979 legislation months. The newest trend inside the 60th birthday are dramatic. The newest counts in every months before the fresh new 60th birthday celebration are definitely the same otherwise less than the fresh baseline few days (two years till the 60th birthday). While doing so, how many marriages to the 60th birthday was 56 % more than the latest standard day. Such matters are mathematically distinct from one another during the 1 percent top. One to, 2, and you can ninety days following 60th birthday celebration, what amount of marriages is still 52, thirty six, and you can 25 % higher than the new baseline times, recommending your matrimony penalty in the Personal Safety is actually extremely influential for the ladies who have become close to age 60. (Full regression email address details are in Appendix Desk step three.)

Notes: Weighted quantity of ong widows from the month and you may year classification. Talking about simply from states that have been throughout the MRA for all decades anywhere between 1968 and you may 1995 and this claimed earlier in the day marital position on the marriage licenses. Look for Appendix Table 3 for analytical need for individual coefficients.

I’ve twenty eight several years of data and rehearse all of the days contained in this 24 months of your 60th birthday celebration, to possess all in all, 1,372 observations

ln ( marriage count month , year ) = ? + ? ? ( month ) + ? ? ( month * after 1979 law change ) + ? ? ( year ) + ? , where < month>

Our mainly based variable ‘s the natural diary of your own monthly matter out-of marriage ceremonies, relative to the newest 60th birthday. All of our independent parameters is few days dummies, which have two years till the 60th birthday omitted; and you will a socializing between the week dummies and you can if the big date months try 1979 otherwise after. We also include season dummies in order to take into account the potential for a time trend in-marriage counts, into omitted group of 1968.

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